Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will the single highest temperature of the day be at São Paulo's Guarulhos International Airport? The three options are 25°C, 26°C, or 27°C — each representing a one-degree band. Think of it like guessing the peak moment of heat on that specific afternoon. July is winter in São Paulo, so these are cool-to-mild temperatures, not summer highs — which is exactly why the range is so narrow. After July 19 ends, the market checks one specific source: Weather Underground's historical record for Guarulhos Airport (station code SBGR). Whatever whole-number Celsius figure appears there as the day's highest reading is the answer. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 20 appears — after that, any corrections to the July 19 data are ignored. The temperature is rounded to whole degrees, so 26.7°C would count as 26°C, not 27°C. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The only headline supplied is about an unrelated education policy story from India. To track this market meaningfully, you'd want to watch São Paulo weather forecasts for July 19 — specifically the expected daytime high at or near Guarulhos Airport. Weather is genuinely hard to pin to a single degree this far in advance. The three leading options — 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C — together cover the most likely range, but July in São Paulo can surprise with unusual cold fronts or warmer spells. The market currently leans toward 26°C at 47%, but a one-degree shift in either direction lands in a different bucket. Since temperature forecasts become reliable only a few days out, meaningful certainty here won't arrive until just before July 19.

The odds right now

• 26°C47%
• 27°C31%
• 25°C13%
• 28°C13%
• 24°C2%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 23°C0%
• 21°C or below0%
• 22°C0%
• 31°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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