Highest temperature in Seattle on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, how hot will it get in Seattle? Specifically, it's asking which two-degree temperature range the day's peak temperature will fall into — think of it like a guessing game with three buckets: a cooler bucket (80–81°F), a middle bucket (82–83°F), and a warmer bucket (84–85°F). The market currently leans toward the middle range, with 44% odds, meaning participants collectively think a high around 82–83°F is the most likely outcome, though not a certainty. This settles based on the single highest temperature recorded on July 14, 2026, at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport — that's the official weather station used. The source is Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees Fahrenheit. One edge case worth knowing: any temperature corrections made before midnight that night can count, but revisions after the first data point for July 15 appears are ignored. Whichever range — 80–81, 82–83, or 84–85°F — contains that final recorded peak temperature wins. No recent news relevant to this market was provided — the only headline from July 14 is an unrelated legal case in Washington state. That's not unusual, since weather market news is really just weather forecasts. As the date gets closer, the thing to watch would be National Weather Service forecasts for Seattle in mid-July, particularly any heat advisories or unusual atmospheric patterns being tracked for the Pacific Northwest. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and a year in advance it's nearly impossible to pin down within a two-degree window. Seattle's summer highs in mid-July historically range widely — from the low 70s to over 100°F in extreme cases — though typical July days often land in the low-to-mid 80s. The three buckets here cover only a six-degree span, so even a small forecast error tips the outcome. Anything from a marine layer rolling in to an unexpected heat dome could shift things significantly.

The odds right now

• 82-83°F43%
• 84-85°F39%
• 80-81°F12%
• 86-87°F6%
• 78-79°F4%
• 88-89°F3%
• 76-77°F1%
• 90-91°F0%
• 92°F or higher0%
• 74-75°F0%
• 73°F or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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