Highest temperature in Seattle on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, how hot will it get in Seattle? Specifically, it wants to know which two-degree temperature band — like 82–83°F or 84–85°F — will contain the single highest temperature reading of that day at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. Think of it as guessing the peak of the thermometer on one specific summer afternoon. The current frontrunner, at 36%, is the 82–83°F range, which is roughly a warm but typical Seattle summer day. The market settles based on the official daily high temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (station code KSEA) on July 15, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. Whatever whole-number Fahrenheit reading is logged as the day's peak gets matched to its two-degree range, and that range wins. The market waits until the first data point from July 16 appears before finalizing — this allows any late corrections to the July 15 record to be counted, but corrections after that cutoff are ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the date is over a year away, the kind of developments worth watching closer to July 2026 would be seasonal weather outlooks from NOAA, and any patterns — like a Pacific heat ridge or La Niña/El Niño conditions — that tend to push Seattle temperatures higher or lower than average in mid-summer. Weather a year out is genuinely unpredictable — even the best forecasts lose meaningful accuracy beyond about two weeks. Seattle's summer highs in mid-July typically land somewhere in the upper 70s to mid-80s°F, but any given day can run cooler or hotter depending on marine air, heat domes, or cloud cover. The spread across the three leading ranges (80–81, 82–83, and 84–85°F) reflects real uncertainty: those ranges cover only six degrees total, and small atmospheric shifts can easily push the reading from one band into another.

The odds right now

• 82-83°F41%
• 84-85°F31%
• 80-81°F19%
• 86-87°F10%
• 78-79°F2%
• 88-89°F1%
• 76-77°F0%
• 90-91°F0%
• 75°F or below0%
• 92-93°F0%
• 94°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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