Highest temperature in Seattle on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, how hot will Seattle get? Specifically, it wants to pin down the single highest temperature of that day — the peak reading, not an average — at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. The options are temperature ranges in degrees Fahrenheit, and whichever range contains the actual peak reading wins. So 'Yes' on 78-79°F means the hottest moment of that day lands somewhere in that two-degree window. After July 19, 2026 ends, the official high temperature logged at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (station KSEA) on Weather Underground gets checked. Whatever whole-number peak reading appears there — say, 78°F or 79°F — determines which range wins and resolves as correct. The market waits until the first data point from July 20 appears before settling, to allow for any last-minute corrections to the July 19 readings. Only one range can win. No recent news was provided for this market. Since it covers a date more than a year away, there's nothing meaningful to report yet. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal weather outlooks for the Pacific Northwest, any emerging El Niño or La Niña patterns for mid-2026, and of course short-range forecasts in the days just before July 19. Weather forecasting more than a year out is genuinely very hard — even professional meteorologists can't reliably predict a specific city's high temperature weeks in advance, let alone a year. Seattle's July weather is usually mild and fairly consistent, which is why the market clusters around a narrow band (76–81°F), but year-to-year swings do happen. A heat dome like the one that hit the Pacific Northwest in 2021 could push temperatures far outside these ranges entirely, which is the kind of low-probability, high-impact wildcard that makes this tricky.

The odds right now

• 78-79°F36%
• 76-77°F30%
• 80-81°F19%
• 74-75°F11%
• 82-83°F4%
• 72-73°F2%
• 84-85°F1%
• 70-71°F1%
• 68-69°F0%
• 86°F or higher0%
• 67°F or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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