Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Seoul get on July 14, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day — and which bucket that temperature falls into: 30°C, 31°C, 32°C, or another range. Think of it like a daily high temperature forecast, but structured as a guessing game with specific degree options. Mid-July in Seoul is deep summer, so temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s are common, which is why those ranges are the leading options. The market settles based on one specific reading: the peak temperature logged on July 14, 2026, at the Incheon International Airport weather station, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — so 30.7°C would count as 30°C, not 31°C. Whichever temperature bucket contains that number wins. One edge case worth knowing: the market waits until the first data point from July 15 appears before it officially closes, to make sure the full day's peak has been captured. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The one headline available is about a dam project in India, which has no connection to Seoul's weather. What would actually matter here is any forecast or weather pattern update for the Korean Peninsula around mid-July 2026 — particularly whether a heat dome or monsoon activity is expected in that window. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market ends over a year from now. The spread across 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C reflects that even a degree of difference matters and is difficult to pin down. July 14 sits in Seoul's monsoon season, when cloud cover and rain can keep temperatures lower than usual — or when humidity and heat can spike unexpectedly. The market is fairly split between 30°C and 31°C, which honestly reflects how close these outcomes are in real-world terms.

The odds right now

• 31°C38%
• 30°C35%
• 32°C14%
• 29°C12%
• 28°C2%
• 33°C1%
• 27°C1%
• 34°C1%
• 25°C or below0%
• 35°C or higher0%
• 26°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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