Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Seoul get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature of the day — like the peak afternoon reading on a thermometer — recorded at Incheon International Airport. The three options are 27°C, 28°C, or 29°C (roughly 81°F, 82°F, and 84°F). You're essentially guessing which of those three degree marks the hottest moment of that day will land on. After July 15, 2026 ends, the market checks Weather Underground's records for the Incheon Airport weather station and reads the single highest temperature logged that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever option — 27, 28, or 29 — matches that number wins. One important detail: the reading is locked in once the first data point for July 16 appears, so late corrections to the July 15 data won't count after that cutoff. No relevant news was provided for this market. The one headline available is about Malaysian student loan policy, which has no connection to Seoul's weather. What would actually matter here is seasonal weather outlooks for the Korean Peninsula in mid-July — particularly any forecasts pointing to heat waves or unusual cool fronts approaching that date. Weather one year in advance is genuinely impossible to predict with precision — even professional forecasters struggle beyond two weeks. Mid-July in Seoul tends to fall during the humid monsoon season, so temperatures can swing based on rain, cloud cover, or shifting winds on any given day. The market spreads its odds across three degrees (27, 28, 29°C), which shows real uncertainty even among participants. A single degree difference is well within normal daily variation, making this especially hard to call.

The odds right now

• 28°C33%
• 29°C32%
• 27°C20%
• 30°C11%
• 31°C or higher5%
• 26°C3%
• 25°C1%
• 24°C0%
• 21°C or below0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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