Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, what will be the hottest temperature of the day recorded at the weather station at Incheon International Airport, just outside Seoul? Participants are picking a temperature bucket — 28°C, 29°C, or 30°C (and presumably others) — and the one containing the actual recorded high wins. In practical terms, 28–30°C is a warm but typical midsummer day in that area, roughly 82–86°F. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at Incheon Airport's weather station on July 16, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical records for that station. Whatever whole-degree Celsius number appears as the day's peak decides the winning bucket. One important detail: the reading is locked in once the first data point for July 17 is published — any corrections after that cutoff are ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the type of developments worth watching closer to the date would be seasonal weather outlooks for the Korean Peninsula, and any patterns suggesting an unusually hot or mild summer in 2026. Weather a year in advance is genuinely unpredictable — even professional forecasts lose reliability beyond about two weeks. July in Seoul is peak summer and humidity can push heat significantly in either direction day to day. The three leading buckets (28°C, 29°C, 30°C) together only account for roughly 88% of the market, meaning there is also a meaningful chance the day runs hotter or cooler than that range. Small shifts in a weather system on that single day could easily move the outcome by a degree or two.

The odds right now

• 29°C40%
• 30°C28%
• 28°C20%
• 31°C or higher13%
• 27°C4%
• 26°C1%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 21°C or below0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.