Highest temperature in Seoul on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Seoul get on July 19, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature of the day — the peak reading — at the weather station at Incheon International Airport, which serves the Seoul metro area. The three options are 27°C (about 81°F), 28°C (about 82°F), or 29°C (about 84°F). Whichever one matches the actual peak reading that day wins. After July 19, 2026 ends, the market settles based on the highest temperature logged that day by the Incheon Airport weather station, as reported on Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius — no decimals. One important detail: if the data gets corrected or revised before the first reading of July 20 appears on that page, the revised number counts. After that first July 20 data point appears, any later corrections are ignored. No recent news relevant to Seoul's weather on July 19, 2026 was provided. That's normal — reliable weather forecasts for a specific date more than a few days out don't really exist yet. The type of development that would matter here is a long-range forecast issued closer to July 19 itself, or a meteorological pattern like a heat dome or a monsoon front affecting South Korea. July is deep in Seoul's summer, so temperatures in the high 20s are historically typical — but the exact peak on any single day is genuinely hard to nail down. The market currently sees 27°C and 28°C as nearly equally likely, with 29°C less so. The real challenge is that day-to-day variation within a normal summer range is hard to predict even a week out, let alone a year out. Weather is inherently noisy, and a passing cloud, a sea breeze, or a shift in the monsoon front could tip the reading one degree either way.

The odds right now

• 27°C32%
• 28°C25%
• 29°C22%
• 30°C10%
• 26°C9%
• 25°C2%
• 31°C or higher2%
• 24°C1%
• 21°C or below0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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