Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in the Seoul area — specifically at Incheon International Airport? Participants pick a temperature in degrees Celsius, like guessing the peak reading on a thermometer that day. A 'Yes' on 27°C means the day's highest recorded temperature lands exactly at 27°C — not a range, just that single whole-number degree. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at Incheon Airport's weather station on July 20, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius, as reported by Weather Underground. Whoever picked the correct number wins. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 21 is published before officially closing — so any last-minute corrections to July 20's readings made before that cutoff will count, but revisions after won't. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. What would matter to watch closer to the date: seasonal weather forecasts for the Korean Peninsula in late July, any developing heat waves or unusual pressure systems over East Asia, and historical temperature records for that specific date at Incheon Airport. Late July in Seoul is reliably hot and humid, but 'reliably hot' still spans a real range — the difference between a partly cloudy day and a full heat wave could easily shift the peak by several degrees. The market is spread across 26°C, 27°C, and 28°C, each holding roughly similar odds, which honestly reflects that no one can pin down a single day's peak temperature more than a year in advance. Weather forecasting at that precision and distance is genuinely hard.

The odds right now

• 26°C31%
• 27°C28%
• 28°C22%
• 25°C13%
• 29°C8%
• 30°C2%
• 24°C1%
• 23°C0%
• 22°C0%
• 31°C or higher0%
• 21°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.