Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how hot will Shanghai get on July 14, 2026? Specifically, it asks for the single highest temperature recorded that day at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius. A result of 36°C means the peak temperature that day lands in the 36-degree range — roughly 97°F, a hot but not extreme summer day for Shanghai. Each option (35, 36, 37°C) represents a narrow one-degree band. The market settles based on whatever peak temperature Weather Underground logs for the Shanghai Pudong Airport station on July 14, 2026 — specifically the highest reading recorded across the full day. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 36.7°C would count as 36°C, not 37°C. The market waits until the first data point for July 15 appears before finalizing, giving any late corrections to July 14's data a chance to be captured. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the date is still over a year away, no weather data or forecasts for July 14, 2026 exist yet. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal climate outlooks for eastern China, and day-of weather forecasts for Shanghai as July 14 approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to predict even days ahead, let alone a year out. The market is spread fairly evenly across 35, 36, and 37°C — each within normal range for Shanghai in mid-July — which reflects real uncertainty rather than a clear favorite. A passing cloud system or a heat dome could shift the peak by several degrees. There are also options beyond these three that hold the remaining roughly 10% probability, meaning an unusually cool or unusually extreme day remains possible.

The odds right now

• 36°C40%
• 35°C27%
• 37°C23%
• 34°C7%
• 38°C6%
• 33°C2%
• 39°C or higher1%
• 32°C1%
• 31°C0%
• 29°C or below0%
• 30°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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