Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, how hot will it get in Shanghai? Specifically, it's asking you to pick which temperature — 36°C, 37°C, or 38°C (roughly 97°F, 99°F, or 100°F) — will match the single highest reading recorded that day at Shanghai's Pudong Airport weather station. A 'Yes' on 37°C means the thermometer peaks somewhere in that range on that day, not higher, not lower. At the end of July 15, 2026, the market settles based on the highest temperature Wunderground logs for the Pudong Airport station that day, measured in whole degrees Celsius. Whichever temperature bucket — 36°C, 37°C, 38°C, or potentially another — contains that number wins. The reading is locked in once the first data point from July 16 appears on Wunderground. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; anything revised after does not. No relevant news was provided for this market. The one headline supplied is about Malaysian student loan policy, which has no connection to Shanghai weather. What would actually matter here are seasonal forecasts for Shanghai in mid-July, or meteorological outlooks for that specific week — none of which are available in what was shared. Weather is genuinely hard to pin down more than a few days out, and a full year in advance is essentially a coin toss between nearby outcomes. The market currently splits its confidence fairly evenly across 36°C, 37°C, and 38°C — mid-July in Shanghai is reliably hot, but whether a given day peaks at 36° or 38° can hinge on a passing cloud, a sea breeze, or a short-lived heat dome. Small differences in conditions produce different outcomes, and no forecast reaches that far.

The odds right now

• 38°C39%
• 37°C32%
• 39°C14%
• 36°C11%
• 35°C5%
• 34°C1%
• 40°C1%
• 41°C0%
• 42°C or higher0%
• 32°C or below0%
• 33°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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