Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Shanghai get on a single summer day — July 16, 2026? The options are temperature brackets, and you're essentially guessing the peak heat of that day. Right now the market leans toward 37°C (about 99°F) as the most likely outcome at 41%, with 38°C (about 100°F) second at 26%, and a slightly cooler 36°C (about 97°F) third at 19%. Mid-July in Shanghai is deep summer, so temperatures in this range are historically normal. The market settles on whichever temperature bracket matches the single highest reading recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on July 16, 2026, using Weather Underground's data for that station. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees Celsius — so 37.8°C would count as 37°C, not 38°C. The final reading is locked in once the first data point from July 17 appears on the site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. That's not unusual — weather markets like this are mainly driven by historical climate patterns and seasonal forecasts rather than breaking news. What would actually matter closer to the date is a medium-range weather forecast for the Shanghai area around July 16, 2026, particularly any signals about heat waves or unusual pressure systems over eastern China. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now. Mid-July Shanghai is reliably hot, which is why the three leading options cluster in a narrow 36–38°C band — but even well-understood climates have surprising days. A passing storm could keep the peak cooler; a regional heat dome could push it higher. The spread across three close options reflects real uncertainty, not a clear favorite, even though 37°C leads.

The odds right now

• 37°C41%
• 38°C27%
• 36°C17%
• 39°C8%
• 35°C7%
• 34°C2%
• 40°C2%
• 33°C0%
• 32°C or below0%
• 41°C0%
• 42°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.