Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be at Shanghai's Pudong Airport? The options are ranges — 32°C, 33°C, or 34°C (and presumably others not shown) — and whichever range contains the actual peak temperature that day wins. To picture it: 33°C is about 91°F, a hot summer day; 34°C is closer to 93°F, noticeably hotter; 32°C is still warm but slightly cooler than the others. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at Shanghai Pudong Airport on July 19, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground historical data page for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius — no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 20 appears on that page. One edge case worth knowing: any temperature corrections made before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. There is no recent news provided that is relevant to Shanghai's weather on July 19, 2026. The two headlines in the feed are unrelated to this market. The kind of development that would matter here is a seasonal weather forecast for Shanghai in mid-July 2026, or a pattern like an unusual heat dome or a cooler-than-normal summer — none of which has been provided. Weather one year in advance is genuinely hard to call. Mid-July is peak summer in Shanghai, so temperatures in the 32–35°C range are historically normal — that's why the market's options cluster there. But the specific peak on one specific day depends on short-range factors like cloud cover, wind, and humidity that no one can foresee this far out. The market is spread fairly evenly across three options at 23–28% each, which honestly reflects that spread: no outcome stands out as a clear favorite.

The odds right now

• 33°C34%
• 32°C28%
• 34°C21%
• 31°C14%
• 35°C8%
• 30°C2%
• 36°C or higher1%
• 29°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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