Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Shanghai get on July 20, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Shanghai Pudong International Airport — the peak of the day's heat, measured in whole degrees Celsius. You pick a temperature range, and if the day's hottest reading falls inside that range, that option wins. Think of it like guessing the afternoon high on a weather forecast, but locking in your guess a year ahead. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong Airport on July 20, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. It only resolves once the first data point for July 21 appears on that page — so the day has to fully finish first. The temperature is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, with no decimals. Whichever range contains that final peak reading is the winner. Early data revisions before midnight are allowed; revisions after that cutoff are not. No recent news is available for this market. That's not unusual — weather markets this far out don't have breaking developments to follow. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal weather forecasts for the Yangtze River Delta region, any signs of an unusual heat wave pattern, or updates from major meteorological agencies about summer 2026 temperatures in eastern China. Weather prediction a full year in advance is genuinely very difficult — no forecast model reaches that far with meaningful accuracy. July 20 in Shanghai is reliably hot and humid, historically peaking somewhere in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, which is why the market spreads probability across 33°C, 34°C, and 35°C fairly evenly. But any given day can be nudged hotter by a heat dome or cooler by cloud cover and rain. The spread of odds here honestly reflects that even the range of plausible outcomes is wide.

The odds right now

• 33°C28%
• 34°C28%
• 35°C18%
• 32°C18%
• 31°C5%
• 36°C3%
• 30°C1%
• 29°C1%
• 37°C1%
• 28°C or below0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.