Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 14?

What you need to know

This market asks: what will the single hottest temperature reading be in Shenzhen on July 14, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius? You're not predicting if it will be hot — you're picking the exact peak temperature for that one day. Yes and No don't quite apply here; instead, you're choosing between specific temperature values (like 28°C, 29°C, or 30°C), and whichever one matches the actual recorded high wins. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on July 14, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground's historical data for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole number — so 29.7°C would count as 29°C, not 30°C. The data is locked in once the first reading from July 15 appears on that site, after which any later corrections to the July 14 data are ignored. No recent news relevant to this market was provided — the one headline listed concerns a dam project in a different country and has no connection to Shenzhen's weather. The kind of news that would actually matter here would be regional weather forecasts for southern China in mid-July 2026, or signals of unusual heat patterns approaching that date. July in Shenzhen is reliably hot and humid, but the exact peak on any single day is genuinely hard to pin down — the difference between 28°C and 30°C can come down to cloud cover, sea breeze, or a passing shower that afternoon. The market spreads its odds fairly evenly across three adjacent temperatures, reflecting that kind of day-to-day unpredictability. With over a year until the date, long-range forecasting offers almost no useful precision at this level of detail.

The odds right now

• 29°C36%
• 30°C27%
• 28°C22%
• 31°C13%
• 27°C6%
• 32°C2%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%
• 26°C0%
• 24°C or below0%
• 25°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.