Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, what will be the hottest temperature of the day in Shenzhen, measured at the city's main airport weather station? The options are specific degree values in Celsius — 28°C, 29°C, 30°C, and presumably others — and whichever one matches the actual recorded high that day wins. It's not about averages or overnight lows, just the single peak reading for that one day. After July 15, 2026 ends, the market looks up the official daily high temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on the Weather Underground website. Whatever whole-number Celsius figure that page shows as the day's highest reading is the answer — and the matching option resolves as Yes. One small detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 16 appears on the site before it locks in, to allow for any late corrections to July 15's numbers. No relevant news was provided for this market. The one headline shown is about an education program in India and has nothing to do with Shenzhen's weather. What would actually matter here is any emerging meteorological forecast for southern China around July 15, 2026 — such as a heat wave, a typhoon, or an unusually cool air mass moving through the region. Mid-July in Shenzhen is reliably hot and humid, so a reading somewhere in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius is historically typical — which is why the market clusters around 28–30°C. But daily peak temperatures are genuinely hard to nail down even a year out. A passing storm could keep the high unusually low; a dry heat surge could push it higher. Weather forecasting this far in advance carries real uncertainty, so the spread across multiple options reflects that honest unpredictability.

The odds right now

• 29°C38%
• 28°C25%
• 30°C21%
• 31°C11%
• 27°C8%
• 32°C3%
• 26°C1%
• 34°C or higher0%
• 33°C0%
• 24°C or below0%
• 25°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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