Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Shenzhen? Specifically, it's asking you to pick the right number from a list — 30°C, 31°C, 32°C, and so on. It's not a Yes/No question; it's a multiple-choice guess about a single day's peak heat at one specific weather station near Shenzhen's main airport. July in Shenzhen is deep summer, so temperatures in the low 30s Celsius (roughly 86–90°F) are completely normal. After July 16, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for the Shenzhen Bao'an Airport weather station and reads the highest temperature logged that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius — no decimals. Whichever option on the list contains that exact number wins. One small detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 17 appears on that site before settling, to make sure the full day's readings are in. Any last-minute corrections to July 16's data are accepted until that point, then ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a weather question like this, what would actually matter to watch is long-range forecasts for Shenzhen in mid-July 2026, or any climate pattern signals (like an unusually strong heat event in the region) as the date approaches. Those kinds of updates would only start to become meaningful a week or two before July 16. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now, so no forecast can help yet. The market currently puts 31°C at 41%, suggesting that's the most expected outcome — but 30°C and 32°C together account for nearly 40% of the odds, meaning a one-degree shift either way is quite plausible. Airport weather stations can also read slightly differently from the city center. The main uncertainty is simply that daily peak temperatures vary based on cloud cover, wind, and humidity in ways that are impossible to pin down this far ahead.

The odds right now

• 31°C41%
• 30°C23%
• 29°C15%
• 32°C9%
• 28°C5%
• 33°C3%
• 27°C1%
• 34°C1%
• 35°C or higher0%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.