Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Shenzhen, measured at the city's main international airport weather station? The options are specific degree values in Celsius — so picking 31°C means you think the peak temperature that day lands exactly at 31 degrees, not 30, not 32. It's a guessing game about a single summer day's high temperature in one of China's major southern cities. The market settles based on whatever peak temperature Weather Underground records for the Shenzhen Bao'an Airport station on July 19, 2026 — rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whoever runs this market checks that website after midnight, once the first reading for July 20 appears, and then locks in the answer. One small but important detail: if Weather Underground revises its data during that same day, the revision counts — but once the next day's data appears, no further changes are considered. There's no specific recent news provided for this market. That's not unusual — it's a weather question more than a news question. What would genuinely matter to watch closer to the date is any meteorological forecast for Shenzhen in mid-to-late July 2026, or reports of unusual heat patterns in southern China that summer. July in Shenzhen is reliably hot and humid, but pinpointing a single day's exact peak temperature over a year in advance is genuinely difficult. The market's odds spread across 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C fairly evenly — reflecting that these outcomes are all plausible within Shenzhen's normal summer range. A passing rain shower, a shift in wind direction, or a stronger-than-usual heat dome can all nudge the peak by a degree or two in either direction, which is exactly the margin that separates these options.

The odds right now

• 31°C33%
• 30°C23%
• 32°C23%
• 29°C16%
• 33°C6%
• 28°C6%
• 27°C1%
• 34°C1%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%
• 35°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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