Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, what will the hottest moment of the day feel like in Shenzhen? Specifically, it's asking which temperature — 29°C, 30°C, 31°C, or something else — will be the single highest reading recorded that day at Shenzhen's Bao'an Airport weather station. Think of it as guessing the peak number on a thermometer at that location on that one day. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature logged at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on July 20, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever whole-degree Celsius figure shows up as the day's peak reading determines the winner. The market can only close after the first data point from July 21 appears, confirming the day is complete. Any last-minute corrections to the July 20 data are accepted until that moment — after that, the number is locked in. There is no recent news relevant to this market. The one headline provided is about a political incident in Pakistan and has no connection to Shenzhen's weather. What would actually matter here is extended weather forecasts for Shenzhen in mid-to-late July 2026, or signals about unusual heat patterns over southern China — but none of that was provided. Weather is genuinely hard to pin down this far in advance, even for a single day. July is deep summer in Shenzhen — hot and humid by default — but the exact peak temperature swings based on cloud cover, rain, sea breezes, and passing weather systems, none of which are predictable a year out. The market is spread across several close temperatures (29°C, 30°C, 31°C together covering roughly 73% of the odds), which reflects that honest uncertainty — any of those outcomes is plausible on a typical July day.

The odds right now

• 31°C33%
• 30°C24%
• 32°C19%
• 29°C17%
• 33°C8%
• 28°C6%
• 34°C or higher1%
• 27°C1%
• 24°C or below0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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