Highest temperature in Taipei on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, how hot will Taipei get at its peak? Specifically, it wants to know which temperature bucket — 35°C, 36°C, or 37°C (roughly 95°F, 97°F, or 99°F) — the single hottest reading of the day will fall into, measured at one specific weather station: Taipei Songshan Airport. Think of it as guessing the top of the thermometer for that one summer day in one of Asia's hottest cities. The market settles — resolves — based on the single highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station on July 15, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. Only whole-degree Celsius readings count, so there's no rounding between buckets; a reading of 36°C goes to 36°C, full stop. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 16 appears on that site. Importantly, any last-minute corrections to the July 15 data are accepted only before that July 16 cutoff. No recent news is available for this market, which makes sense — July 15, 2026 is still well in the future, so there's no weather data to report yet. What would matter closer to the date: extended forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration, any unusual heat-wave or typhoon patterns in the region, and historical temperature records for mid-July at Songshan. Mid-July is reliably hot in Taipei, but pinpointing a single day's peak to within one degree Celsius is genuinely hard. The market currently leans toward 36°C (42%) but gives real weight to 35°C (34%) and 37°C (15%), which shows how spread the uncertainty is. A passing cloud, a brief rain shower, or a slight shift in wind direction can easily move a day's peak by a degree or two. Weather forecasts also can't reliably target a single day more than a week or two out.

The odds right now

• 36°C40%
• 35°C34%
• 37°C12%
• 34°C10%
• 33°C2%
• 38°C1%
• 39°C or higher0%
• 30°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 29°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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