Highest temperature in Taipei on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how hot will Taipei get on July 19, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Taipei Songshan Airport — and whether that peak will land at 35°C (95°F), 36°C (97°F), or 37°C (99°F). The market currently leans toward 36°C being the most likely outcome, but 37°C is close behind. Think of it as a poll on how brutal that particular summer day will be. The market settles based on the highest temperature reading logged at Taipei Songshan Airport on July 19, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whatever the single hottest reading of the day is — rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — determines which option wins. The data is locked in once the first reading from July 20 appears, so late-day temperature spikes on the 19th still count, but corrections made after that cutoff do not. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to Taipei's weather on July 19, 2026 — they cover university enrollment in North Dakota and a swine fever case in Kinmen. There is no recent weather data or forecast to point to here. What would actually matter to watch is any forecast from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration as the date gets closer, or reports of unusual heat patterns across East Asia. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a week or two out, and a single degree of difference is a very fine target. The three leading options — 35°C, 36°C, and 37°C — are spread only two degrees apart, and Taipei in mid-July regularly sees highs anywhere in that band depending on cloud cover, humidity, and whether a weather system is passing through. The market is fairly spread across those options right now, which honestly reflects how close the call is.

The odds right now

• 36°C37%
• 37°C35%
• 35°C16%
• 38°C10%
• 34°C3%
• 33°C3%
• 39°C or higher2%
• 29°C or below0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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