Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Tel Aviv get on one specific summer day — July 15, 2026? There are three possible answers: 31°C (about 88°F), 32°C (about 90°F), or 33°C (about 91°F). Whoever is closest to the actual peak temperature recorded that day wins. It is essentially a thermometer prediction — nothing political, nothing complex, just the hottest reading of the day at one specific weather station near Tel Aviv. The official weather station at Ben Gurion International Airport — operated by NOAA, the US national weather agency — logs hourly temperatures. On July 15, 2026, the single highest temperature reading from that station determines the outcome. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. The result is locked in once the first reading from July 16 is published, meaning any corrections made before that point count, but any corrections made after that point do not. The station measures in whole degrees, so a reading of, say, 32.7°C would count as 32°C. No recent news was provided for this market, which makes sense — it is a weather question more than a news question. What would matter closer to the date is the local weather forecast for Tel Aviv in mid-July 2026, particularly whether a heat wave or an unusually cool Mediterranean breeze is expected that week. Mid-July in Tel Aviv is reliably hot, so the range of plausible outcomes is narrow — the market is already focused on just a three-degree band. The main uncertainty is natural weather variability: a sea breeze off the Mediterranean can pull temperatures down by a degree or two, while a hamsin (a hot, dry wind from the east) can push them above normal. A single degree separates all three outcomes, and day-to-day forecasts are not reliable a year in advance, so the market is essentially pricing long-run climate averages right now.

The odds right now

• 32°C70%
• 33°C21%
• 31°C5%
• 34°C2%
• 30°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 28°C or below0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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