Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, how hot will it get in Tel Aviv? Specifically, it's asking which temperature — 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C (roughly 88°F, 90°F, or 91°F) — will be the single hottest reading of that day. Think of it like guessing the afternoon peak on a summer thermometer. Whichever bracket contains the actual high temperature that day wins. Mid-July in Tel Aviv is deep summer, so temperatures in this range are typical. The market settles based on one specific data source: NOAA's hourly temperature log for Ben Gurion International Airport, located just outside Tel Aviv. After midnight ends July 16, 2026, whoever runs this market looks at every temperature reading logged that day and finds the highest one. That number — rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — determines which bracket wins. Any late corrections to that day's data are accepted until the first reading of July 17 appears; after that, the record is locked. No recent news was provided for this market, which makes sense — it's a weather question about a specific future date over a year away. What would eventually matter to watch: seasonal weather outlooks for the eastern Mediterranean in summer 2026, and whether any unusual heat patterns (heat dome events, for example) are forecast closer to mid-July of that year. A year-out weather forecast is genuinely unpredictable — even professional meteorologists can't reliably pin down a single day's high temperature that far in advance. The market currently leans toward 32°C at 60%, with 31°C and 33°C splitting most of the rest, which reflects historical averages more than any real forecast. The main uncertainty is simply that a single day's temperature depends on conditions — wind, cloud cover, regional pressure systems — that won't be knowable until days before July 16, 2026.

The odds right now

• 32°C61%
• 31°C25%
• 33°C14%
• 30°C1%
• 29°C1%
• 34°C1%
• 36°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 28°C or below0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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