Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, how hot will it get in Tel Aviv? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day — and whether that peak lands at 34°C, 35°C, or 36°C (roughly 93°F, 95°F, or 97°F). The market is not about average temperature or nighttime lows — just the hottest moment of that one day, measured at Ben Gurion Airport, which sits just outside the city. The market settles based on one specific data source: NOAA's hourly temperature readings for Ben Gurion Airport (station code LLBG). Whatever the single highest whole-degree Celsius reading is on July 19, that's the outcome. The market can only close after the first data point from July 20 appears, confirming the day is fully recorded. One key detail: NOAA rounds to whole degrees, so there's no splitting the difference between, say, 35.4°C and 35.6°C — it will simply show as 35°C. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market. The only headline is about a university conference in Malaysia, which has no connection to Tel Aviv weather. To track this market meaningfully, you'd want to watch short-range weather forecasts for the Tel Aviv or Ben Gurion Airport area as July 19, 2026 approaches — those forecasts become quite reliable within about a week of the date. July is reliably hot in Tel Aviv, so the real question is how hot — and that narrow range is genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. The three leading outcomes (34°C, 35°C, 36°C) are spread across just three degrees, meaning a sea breeze, a passing cloud, or a brief heat wave could shift the result entirely. Daily peak temperatures vary naturally even within the same week of the same month. Long-range weather forecasting simply cannot predict a single day's high with this kind of precision.

The odds right now

• 35°C55%
• 36°C23%
• 34°C14%
• 37°C5%
• 33°C3%
• 32°C or below2%
• 38°C1%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 41°C0%
• 42°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.