Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will it get in Tel Aviv on July 20, 2026? Specifically, it's asking for the single highest temperature recorded that day — and you're choosing between three options: 33°C (about 91°F), 34°C (about 93°F), or 35°C (about 95°F). The market currently favors 34°C as the most likely peak, with 35°C as the second choice and 33°C the least favored. This settles based on one specific data source: NOAA's hourly temperature readings for Ben Gurion International Airport (the main airport near Tel Aviv) on July 20, 2026. Whatever the highest single reading is that day — rounded to a whole degree Celsius — determines which option wins. The market can only close after the first data point from July 21 appears, confirming the day is fully recorded. Late corrections to that day's data are accepted until that cutoff, then ignored. There's no specific recent news available for this market. For a weather question like this, what would genuinely matter to watch is any seasonal forecast for the Eastern Mediterranean in July 2026, or reports of unusual heat patterns in the region as that date approaches. Historical climate data for Tel Aviv in late July is the steadiest background reference available right now. July in Tel Aviv is reliably hot, so the broad range isn't very surprising — but pinning down whether the peak lands at exactly 33, 34, or 35°C on one specific day is genuinely difficult. Daily highs depend on subtle factors: wind direction off the sea, whether a heat wave is passing through, or a coastal breeze that arrives earlier than expected. A one-degree difference is well within normal day-to-day variation, and no forecast is precise enough at this distance to call it confidently.

The odds right now

• 34°C56%
• 35°C24%
• 33°C17%
• 36°C4%
• 32°C1%
• 37°C1%
• 31°C or below0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 41°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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