Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 13, 2026, how hot will it get in Tokyo? Specifically, it's asking you to pick which single whole-number temperature (in Celsius) will be the highest reading of the day at Tokyo's Haneda Airport weather station. The three leading options — 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C — correspond roughly to a warm summer day (30°C is about 86°F, 32°C is about 90°F). The market is essentially a temperature forecast for one specific day. After July 13 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground website for the peak temperature recorded that day at Haneda Airport, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whatever single number that reading shows — say, 31°C — that option wins. The market won't officially settle until the first data point for July 14 appears on that site, confirming the day is complete. One small wrinkle: temperature readings can be revised slightly, but only corrections made before that first July 14 data point counts. No recent news relevant to Tokyo's July 13 temperature was provided. The one headline available — about tree planting in India — has no connection to this question. To track this market, the most useful thing to watch would be weather forecasts for Tokyo in the days leading up to July 13, particularly any outlooks from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Weather forecasting beyond a few days is genuinely hard, and this market ends over a year from now, making any prediction today mostly guesswork. July is deep in Tokyo's hot, humid summer, so temperatures in the 30–33°C range are historically common — that's why the odds cluster tightly around 30–32°C. But actual daily peaks vary meaningfully based on cloud cover, rain, and wind. The market currently spreads its probability across several degrees, reflecting that honest uncertainty rather than a clear consensus.

The odds right now

• 31°C40%
• 30°C26%
• 32°C22%
• 29°C10%
• 33°C or higher6%
• 28°C2%
• 27°C0%
• 23°C or below0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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