Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, how hot will Tokyo get? Specifically, it's asking you to pick which temperature bucket — 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C — will match the single hottest reading of the day at Tokyo's Haneda Airport. In practical terms, 31°C feels like a warm, humid summer day (about 88°F), 32°C is noticeably hotter (about 90°F), and 33°C is quite sweaty (about 91°F). The market is simply asking which of those three buckets the thermometer lands in at its peak. At the end of July 14, 2026 in Tokyo, someone checks the Weather Underground website for Haneda Airport and reads the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whatever that number is — say, 32°C — that bucket wins and resolves Yes; the others resolve No. One key detail: the market waits until the first data point of July 15 appears on that website before it officially settles, to allow any late corrections to the July 14 readings to be captured. No recent news relevant to Tokyo's July 14 weather was provided — the one headline listed is about a dam project in an unrelated region. That's completely normal this far from the date. What would actually matter is a seasonal forecast for Tokyo in mid-July, or any unusual weather pattern — like a heat dome or typhoon — developing over Japan in the days leading up to July 14, 2026. Tokyo's summer weather is genuinely hard to pin down even a day ahead, let alone more than a year out. The market currently leans toward 32°C (39%), but 31°C and 33°C together account for over half the probability, reflecting real spread. Mid-July is Tokyo's hottest and most humid period, so temperatures in that 31–33°C range are historically plausible — but a passing storm could cool things, or a heat wave could push readings well above 33°C entirely. One degree of difference is a very thin target for any forecast.

The odds right now

• 32°C39%
• 33°C32%
• 31°C18%
• 34°C11%
• 30°C3%
• 35°C2%
• 29°C1%
• 36°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 27°C or below0%
• 37°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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