Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Tokyo get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it's asking for the single highest temperature recorded that day at Tokyo's Haneda Airport — and then asking which bucket that number falls into: 32°C, 33°C, 34°C, or something else. To put it in physical terms, 33°C feels like a hot, humid summer day where you're sweating the moment you step outside — roughly 91°F. The market currently thinks that's the most likely outcome, with a 47% chance. The market settles based on one specific number: the peak temperature logged at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on July 15, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whatever the highest whole-degree Celsius reading is that day, whichever bucket contains it wins. The key detail: temperatures are rounded to whole degrees — no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 16 appears on that site, after which any corrections to the July 15 data are ignored. The two news items provided are both about Malaysian politics and have no connection to Tokyo's weather or this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. For this kind of market, what would actually matter is weather forecast updates for Tokyo in mid-July 2026 — specifically any seasonal outlooks or heat warnings issued by Japan's Meteorological Agency as the date approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and a single day's peak temperature is one of the trickier things to pin down even close to the date. Mid-July in Tokyo is reliably hot and humid, but the exact peak can swing several degrees depending on cloud cover, wind, and whether a heat dome is sitting over the region. The three leading options — 32°C, 33°C, and 34°C — are all realistic, and the gap between them is just one degree, well within normal daily variation.

The odds right now

• 33°C43%
• 32°C25%
• 34°C22%
• 31°C6%
• 35°C5%
• 36°C or higher2%
• 30°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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