Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, how hot will it get in Tokyo? Specifically, it wants to pin down the single highest temperature of that day at Tokyo's Haneda Airport — and it asks you to pick which degree it lands on. Will the peak be 33°C (about 91°F), 34°C (about 93°F), 35°C (about 95°F), or something else? Think of it as guessing where the thermometer tops out before the day ends. At the end of July 16, 2026, the market checks Weather Underground's historical record for Haneda Airport (station RJTT) and reads off the single highest temperature logged that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever temperature bracket that number falls into wins. The market can only close once the first data point for July 17 appears on the site — so it waits for confirmation the day is truly done. Any corrections to the reading are accepted up until that moment, but not after. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, what would actually matter to watch for closer to the date is the seasonal weather outlook for Tokyo in mid-July — particularly any forecasts about heat waves, urban heat patterns, or unusual climate conditions for the summer of 2026. July in Tokyo is reliably hot, but the exact peak temperature on any single day is genuinely hard to call a year in advance. The market currently leans toward 34°C at 36%, but 33°C and 35°C are close behind — reflecting real spread in what's plausible. Even short-range forecasts struggle to nail one-degree precision. A passing cloud, a sea breeze, or a heat dome can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. The further out you are from the actual day, the wider that uncertainty gets.

The odds right now

• 34°C36%
• 33°C28%
• 35°C14%
• 32°C13%
• 36°C4%
• 31°C3%
• 37°C1%
• 30°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%
• 28°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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