Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, how hot will Tokyo get at its peak? Specifically, it's asking you to pick which single-degree temperature bucket — 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C — will contain the day's highest recorded temperature. To put that in physical terms: 31°C feels like a hot, humid summer day (about 88°F); 32°C is noticeably hotter (90°F); 33°C is genuinely sweltering (about 91°F). The market currently leans toward 32°C as the most likely outcome, with 33°C second and 31°C third. The market settles based on whichever temperature bucket contains the single highest reading of the day at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station, measured in whole degrees Celsius and pulled from Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The key detail: only whole-number Celsius readings count — so 32.7°C would be recorded as 32°C. The market locks in once the first data point for July 20 appears on that page. Any corrections to the data published before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. None of the provided news is relevant to this market — the only headline is about an Indian education bill, which has no connection to Tokyo weather. There's no recent weather news to point to here. What would matter is Tokyo's actual forecast as July 19 approaches, historical July temperature patterns for Haneda, and any significant weather systems — like heat domes or typhoons — moving through the region around that date. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and a single-degree bucket makes this especially tricky — the difference between 32°C and 33°C is smaller than typical forecast error. July is peak summer in Tokyo, so extreme heat is plausible, but the exact peak depends on cloud cover, wind, and humidity on that one specific day. The odds are spread across three close buckets rather than heavily favoring one, which honestly reflects how uncertain a one-degree temperature forecast more than a year away really is.

The odds right now

• 32°C86%
• 33°C8%
• 34°C2%
• 35°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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