Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Tokyo get on July 20, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature of the day at Tokyo's Haneda Airport — and whether that peak lands at 33°C (about 91°F), 34°C (about 93°F), 35°C (about 95°F), or some other value. Each option is a one-degree bucket, and only one will win. It's a straightforward weather question: how scorching is that particular summer day in Tokyo? On July 20, 2026, once the day's temperature data is fully published on Weather Underground for the Haneda Airport station, whoever runs the market checks the single highest recorded temperature for that day. Whichever one-degree Celsius value that reading lands on wins — for example, if the peak is 34°C, the 34°C option settles as Yes. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, so a reading of 33.7°C would count as 33°C, not 34°C. Any corrections to the data are accepted until the first reading of July 21st appears, then the record is locked. None of the provided news relates to this market — the only headline is about an education policy bill in India, which has no connection to Tokyo's weather. There's no recent news to point to here. What would matter closer to the date is a short-range weather forecast for Tokyo in mid-to-late July, or historical temperature records for that specific date in past years. Summer weather is genuinely hard to pin down more than a day or two in advance, even with good forecasting tools. July in Tokyo is reliably hot and humid, but the difference between a 33°C day and a 35°C day can come down to cloud cover, wind direction, or a passing weather system that shifts at the last moment. The market is spread fairly evenly across 33°C and 34°C, with 35°C getting less weight — but a one-degree swing is a small margin, and real-world weather routinely surprises even professional forecasters.

The odds right now

• 34°C38%
• 33°C35%
• 35°C18%
• 32°C7%
• 36°C5%
• 31°C1%
• 37°C or higher1%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 27°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.