Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 11?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Tokyo on June 11, 2026? Specifically, it's asking you to pick the right whole-number degree Celsius — with 25°C (about 77°F) currently the most favored answer, followed by 26°C (79°F), and 27°C (81°F). It's essentially a temperature forecast turned into a multiple-choice question, where the choices are individual degree readings. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Tokyo's Haneda Airport on June 11, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground's station data in whole degrees Celsius. Whichever temperature bucket contains that reading wins. The result is locked in once the first data point from June 12 appears on the source — after that, no revisions count, even if the weather record is later corrected. No relevant recent news was provided — the one headline available is about SpaceX and has no connection to Tokyo weather. What would actually matter here is any seasonal weather forecast for the Kanto region around mid-June 2026, or historical data showing what Tokyo's typical daily highs look like during early rainy season. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a day or two out, and this market resolves over a year from now. June in Tokyo typically falls during tsuyu, the rainy season, when temperatures are variable and cloud cover can swing the daily high by several degrees. The spread across 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C is narrow — a single cloudy afternoon or unexpected heat could shift the outcome entirely. Long-range forecasting at this precision is essentially impossible today.

The odds right now

• 26°C100%
• 27°C0%
• 29°C or higher0%
• 19°C or below0%
• 20°C0%
• 21°C0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 28°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 11, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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