Highest temperature in Toronto on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Toronto get on July 14, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day — the peak afternoon heat — and whether it lands at 36°C, 37°C, or 38°C (roughly 97°F, 99°F, or 100°F). Those are all genuinely hot summer days; the question is just how hot. The market currently puts 36°C as the most likely outcome at 39%, with 37°C close behind at 35%, and 38°C less likely at 19%. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on July 14, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground website. Whichever bracket — 36°C, 37°C, or 38°C — contains that number wins. The data source measures in whole degrees only, so 36.7°C would count as 36°C, not 37°C. The result is locked in once the first temperature reading from July 15 appears on that site, after which any later corrections to July 14's data are ignored. No recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, that's not surprising — weather forecasts aren't meaningful that far out. What would matter to watch closer to the date: seasonal forecasts for summer 2026, and day-ahead or hour-ahead weather models for July 14 specifically, once that window arrives. Weather is genuinely hard to predict even a few days out, let alone a year ahead. July in Toronto can swing widely — some July 14ths are mild, some are sweltering. The three options here are all clustered within a narrow 3-degree band, making it easy for real conditions to tip one way or the other. A passing cloud system, a lake breeze off Lake Ontario, or a heat dome stalling overhead could each shift the peak reading by a degree or two. A year out, no forecast model can pin this down.

The odds right now

• 37°C42%
• 36°C38%
• 38°C19%
• 39°C2%
• 35°C2%
• 34°C1%
• 33°C0%
• 40°C0%
• 32°C or below0%
• 41°C0%
• 42°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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