Highest temperature in Toronto on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Toronto get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day — the peak of the day's heat — measured in whole degrees Celsius at Toronto Pearson International Airport. The three options on the table are 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C, which roughly translate to 88°F, 90°F, and 91°F. Think of it as a bet on whether that day will be a moderately hot summer day, a genuinely hot one, or a scorcher. The market settles based on whatever peak temperature Weather Underground logs for Toronto Pearson Airport (station CYYZ) on July 15, 2026 — whichever single highest reading appears that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 16 appears on the site, meaning any temperature corrections made before that cutoff count, but revisions after that point are ignored. One thing to note: the listed options don't cover every possibility — if the high turns out to be 30°C or 34°C or higher, one of those unlisted outcomes would resolve instead. There's no recent news specifically relevant to this market, which makes sense — it's a weather question about a date still over a year away. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date are seasonal forecasts, any developing climate patterns like El Niño or La Niña for the summer of 2026, and Toronto's historical July temperature records, which tend to cluster in the low-to-mid 30s. A year-out weather forecast is genuinely one of the hardest things to predict — no meteorologist can reliably tell you the high temperature on a specific day 12+ months from now. The market's spread across 31–33°C reflects real uncertainty, not a clear lean. Toronto's July highs are variable: some days are mild, some are sweltering, and a passing storm or heat dome can shift the peak by several degrees. The market currently leans toward 32°C at 38%, but the gap between the top options is narrow, and a lot can change.

The odds right now

• 32°C38%
• 33°C32%
• 31°C17%
• 34°C10%
• 30°C3%
• 29°C2%
• 28°C or below1%
• 35°C1%
• 36°C1%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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