Highest temperature in Toronto on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: how hot will Toronto get on July 19, 2026? Specifically, it asks what the single highest temperature of the day will be, measured in whole degrees Celsius at Toronto Pearson International Airport. A result of 24°C means the peak temperature that day lands exactly at 24 — roughly a warm but comfortable summer day. 25°C is a touch warmer, and 23°C is a bit cooler. The market is essentially crowd-sourcing a one-day weather forecast for a specific location. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson Airport on July 19, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. Whatever the single peak reading is that day — rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — determines which option wins. One important detail: the data can be revised throughout the day, but once the first reading for July 20 appears, the number is locked in. Any corrections published after that cutoff are ignored. The two news items provided — one about Ontario Premier Doug Ford and one about education policy in Jammu & Kashmir — have no connection to Toronto's weather forecast. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. For this kind of market, what would actually matter is a Environment Canada extended forecast or meteorological model data for the Toronto area around July 19. Weather is genuinely difficult to forecast more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now, making any current signal almost meaningless. Even on the day itself, a single degree of difference can hinge on cloud cover, wind shifts, or a passing shower — things no model predicts perfectly. The market currently leans toward 24°C at 45%, but the spread across three neighboring temperatures shows real uncertainty. Historical July averages in Toronto hover in this range, so no outcome here would be unusual.

The odds right now

• 24°C48%
• 25°C25%
• 23°C17%
• 26°C9%
• 22°C2%
• 21°C or below1%
• 27°C1%
• 28°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.