Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of July 13, 2026 feel like in Warsaw? Specifically, it's asking which single temperature — 25°C, 26°C, 27°C, or something else — will be the peak reading at Warsaw's main airport weather station that day. Think of it as guessing the top of the thermometer for one summer day in Poland's capital. The market currently leans toward 26°C (roughly 79°F) as the most likely peak, with 25°C and 27°C also in the running. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport on July 13, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The reading is in whole degrees Celsius — no decimals. Whichever temperature bucket contains that peak wins. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 14 appears before it closes, to allow any late corrections to July 13's readings to be captured first. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of update that would matter here is a medium-range weather forecast for Warsaw in mid-July 2026 — something like a meteorological outlook issued a week or two before the date, which would give a much clearer signal about whether conditions are trending hotter or cooler than the current odds suggest. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this date is still over a year away. July temperatures in Warsaw can vary significantly depending on whether a heat wave, a cool Atlantic front, or typical summer conditions arrive that week. The spread across 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C is tight — just a degree or two separates each outcome — meaning a small shift in actual conditions changes everything. Until forecasts for that specific week exist, the odds are essentially based on historical averages alone.

The odds right now

• 26°C44%
• 25°C29%
• 27°C21%
• 24°C9%
• 23°C3%
• 28°C2%
• 22°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 21°C0%
• 30°C or higher0%
• 20°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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