Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 14, 2026, how hot will it get in Warsaw? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Warsaw's Chopin Airport weather station. The three main options — 25°C, 26°C, or 27°C — each represent a different peak temperature, and right now the market thinks 26°C (about 79°F) is the most likely outcome at 40%, with 25°C second at 28% and 27°C third at 17%. The market settles — meaning it gets a final Yes or No answer — based on the official high temperature reading from Warsaw Chopin Airport on July 14, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground website. Whatever whole-degree Celsius number shows as the day's peak temperature on that site determines the winner. One edge case worth knowing: the reading can be revised during the day, but once the first data point for July 15 appears, the number is locked in permanently and no later corrections count. There is no relevant recent news available for this market. Since the date is over a year away, the kinds of developments that would matter most are seasonal weather pattern forecasts for central Europe in mid-July — but no such specific forecasts exist that far out. Closer to the date, updated long-range weather models for Warsaw would be the most useful thing to watch. Weather more than a year in advance is genuinely impossible to forecast with precision. Even professional meteorologists rarely predict specific daily highs beyond about two weeks. July in Warsaw typically sees warm summer days, but a given July 14 could be a cool overcast day or an unusually hot one — a difference of just a few degrees separates all three options. The market is also spread across nearby temperatures, meaning even a small shift in conditions on the day could swing the outcome completely.

The odds right now

• 26°C45%
• 27°C22%
• 25°C20%
• 24°C5%
• 28°C or higher5%
• 23°C2%
• 22°C1%
• 21°C0%
• 18°C or below0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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