Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: how hot will Warsaw get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it's asking for the single highest temperature recorded that day at Warsaw's Chopin Airport weather station. The three options — 27°C, 28°C, and 29°C — are the competing guesses, and the market currently leans toward 28°C as the most likely peak. In everyday terms, 27–29°C is a warm summer day, roughly 81–84°F, the kind of weather where you'd want shade but wouldn't call it a heatwave. The market settles on whichever temperature the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station officially records as its daily high on July 15, 2026, as shown on the weather site Wunderground. The number is read in whole degrees Celsius — no decimals. One small thing to know: the result can only be confirmed after the first data point from July 16 appears on that site. If the recorded temperature is revised before that cutoff, the revision counts; after that cutoff, it doesn't. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since this is a weather question about a date over a year away, what would eventually matter is short-range meteorological forecasts — those only become meaningful in the week or two before July 15, 2026. Historical climate data for Warsaw in mid-July is the main background context right now. Weather a year out is genuinely hard to predict — even professional forecasts lose most accuracy beyond about two weeks. The three options here are clustered tightly together (27°C, 28°C, 29°C), meaning a single degree of difference decides the outcome. That's well within the natural day-to-day variability of a Warsaw summer. Mid-July historically tends to be warm there, but whether the peak lands at exactly 27, 28, or 29 depends on factors — wind, cloud cover, passing fronts — that no model can reliably capture this far in advance.

The odds right now

• 28°C46%
• 29°C24%
• 27°C23%
• 26°C5%
• 30°C or higher2%
• 25°C2%
• 24°C0%
• 20°C or below0%
• 21°C0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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