Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Warsaw get on July 16, 2026 — specifically, what will the single highest temperature of that day be? The three options are 28°C, 29°C, or 30°C, which in everyday terms is roughly 82°F, 84°F, and 86°F — a range spanning from a warm summer day to a fairly hot one. The market currently leans toward 29°C as the most likely outcome, with 30°C as the second choice. This settles based on one specific number: the peak temperature recorded on July 16, 2026, at Warsaw Chopin Airport, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whoever runs that site determines the number — the market just reads it. Importantly, the temperature is rounded to whole degrees Celsius, so a reading of 29.7°C would count as 29°C, not 30°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 17 appears on that site. There is no relevant recent news available for this market. Given the deadline is over a year away, what would actually matter to watch for closer to the date are seasonal weather forecasts for central Poland and any signals about whether summer 2026 is tracking warmer or cooler than average. Weather prediction a year out is genuinely very hard — even professional forecasts lose meaningful accuracy beyond about two weeks. The three options cover only a 3-degree window, so any unusual heat wave or cool front on that specific day could push the result outside the most-favored range. Mid-July in Warsaw averages highs around 24–26°C, but individual days vary widely. The market also depends entirely on one airport weather station, so local measurement quirks matter too.

The odds right now

• 29°C47%
• 30°C35%
• 28°C12%
• 31°C5%
• 27°C2%
• 32°C1%
• 26°C1%
• 33°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 24°C or below0%
• 34°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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