Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the highest temperature of the day be in Wellington, New Zealand on July 13, 2026? Wellington is in the Southern Hemisphere, so July is the middle of winter there — think cold, windy days. The two options shown are 13°C (about 55°F) and 14°C (about 57°F). A Yes on 13°C means the day's peak temperature lands at exactly 13°C; a Yes on 14°C means it hits exactly 14°C. Only one range will win. After July 13, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Wellington International Airport weather station data on Weather Underground — a historical weather records website. They look at the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever temperature bucket that number falls into wins. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 14 appears on that site, so any late corrections to July 13 data after that cutoff are ignored. No recent news was provided for this market, which makes sense — the event is over a year away and weather that far out simply cannot be tracked in advance. What would matter to watch closer to the date: Wellington winter forecasts from New Zealand's MetService, and any unusual climate patterns like a strong El Niño or La Niña cycle that might shift winter temperatures regionally. Wellington's winter highs are fairly consistent, which is why the market is strongly one-sided — it prices 13°C at around 97%. The main genuine uncertainty is not which side is right, but simply whether an unexpected warm or cold day breaks the pattern. Weather is inherently variable, even in predictable climates. A single unusual front, a clear sunny day, or a cold snap could shift the reading by a degree either way. At 97%, the market is saying "almost certainly 13°C, but not guaranteed."

The odds right now

• 13°C98%
• 14°C2%
• 15°C0%
• 7°C or below0%
• 8°C0%
• 9°C0%
• 10°C0%
• 11°C0%
• 12°C0%
• 16°C0%
• 17°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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