Highest temperature in Wellington on July 14?

What you need to know

This market asks: on July 14, 2026, what will the single highest temperature of the day be at Wellington Airport in New Zealand? July is mid-winter in New Zealand, so temperatures are cool — think a chilly day rather than a summer one. The three options are 14°C, 15°C, or 16°C (roughly 57°F, 59°F, or 61°F). You are essentially picking which of those three narrow bands the day's peak temperature will fall into. At the end of July 14, 2026, whoever runs this market will check the Weather Underground website for the Wellington International Airport weather station and read the highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Whatever that number is — 14, 15, or 16 — the matching option wins and the market is settled ("resolved"). One small detail: if Wunderground revises the temperature reading before the first data point of July 15 appears, the revision counts. After that, the original reading is locked in. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the news that would matter most is Wellington weather forecasts for mid-July 2026 — which simply don't exist yet. What would eventually be worth watching is any seasonal outlook for New Zealand's winter of 2026 from meteorological services like MetService NZ. Weather prediction more than a few days out is genuinely unreliable, and July 2026 is still well over a year away — no forecast can reach that far. The market currently puts 75% on 15°C, which reflects Wellington's typical mid-winter daily highs, but a single cold southerly wind or an unusually mild day can easily shift the reading by one or two degrees. Since the outcome hinges on one specific degree, even a small swing in conditions changes the result entirely.

The odds right now

• 15°C75%
• 14°C14%
• 16°C9%
• 13°C2%
• 17°C0%
• 12°C0%
• 9°C or below0%
• 10°C0%
• 11°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. The exchange's settlement fee applies everywhere and is shown before you confirm any trade. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.