Highest temperature in Wellington on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the highest temperature be in Wellington, New Zealand on a single day — July 15, 2026? Wellington is in the Southern Hemisphere, so July is mid-winter there, which is why the temperatures being discussed are cool, around 14–16°C (roughly 57–61°F). The three options are specific whole-number degree readings, and whichever one matches the actual recorded high that day wins. The market settles based on the peak temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on July 15, 2026, as logged by Weather Underground. The reading must be a whole number in Celsius — no decimals. It resolves after the first data point for July 16 appears on that site, locking in whatever the final figure was. One edge case worth knowing: if the temperature gets revised before that cutoff, the revision counts; after it, only the locked reading matters. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. That's pretty normal for a weather question more than a year away — no forecast exists yet at that range. What would actually matter to watch is short-range weather forecasting for Wellington in the week leading up to July 15, 2026, when accurate models can finally project that specific day. Weather is genuinely hard to predict even a few days out, let alone over a year away. The market currently prices 15°C as the most likely outcome at around 60%, with 16°C at 31% — so the crowd leans toward the cooler end of mild winter days, but hasn't ruled out a slightly warmer one. Wellington is also famously windy and variable. The main uncertainty here is simply that weather on any single future day is inherently unpredictable this far in advance.

The odds right now

• 15°C62%
• 16°C31%
• 17°C2%
• 14°C2%
• 13°C1%
• 18°C0%
• 10°C or below0%
• 11°C0%
• 12°C0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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