Highest temperature in Wellington on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, how warm will Wellington, New Zealand actually get? Wellington is in the Southern Hemisphere, so July is the middle of winter there — think cold, windy days, not summer heat. The three options are the high temperature reaching 14°C (about 57°F), 15°C (about 59°F), or 16°C (about 61°F). A 'Yes' on any one option means the day's peak temperature lands exactly in that range. After July 16 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Wellington International Airport weather station's data on Weather Underground — a public weather history website. Whatever whole-number peak temperature is recorded there that day determines which option wins. The reading is rounded to the nearest full degree Celsius, so 15.7°C would count as 16°C. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 17 appears on that site. Any late corrections to the July 16 data made after that cutoff are ignored. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The two headlines shown are about education policy in India and Malaysia — completely unrelated to Wellington's weather. What would actually matter here is a short-range weather forecast for Wellington around July 16, 2026, which would only become meaningful a few days before the date. A single degree of temperature is a very small margin, and Wellington's weather is genuinely unpredictable far in advance — the city is famously windy and changeable. The market prices 15°C as the most likely outcome at 60%, with 16°C at 32%, but a year out, no forecast can reliably distinguish between days that end up one degree apart. The main uncertainty is simply the natural randomness of daily weather, which no model captures reliably at this range.

The odds right now

• 15°C65%
• 16°C28%
• 14°C5%
• 17°C4%
• 13°C0%
• 10°C or below0%
• 11°C0%
• 12°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.