Highest temperature in Wellington on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: what will the highest temperature be in Wellington, New Zealand on July 19, 2026? The three options — 12°C, 13°C, or 14°C — represent a narrow band of cool temperatures, which makes sense because July is the middle of winter in New Zealand. A 'Yes' on 13°C, for example, means the thermometer peaks at exactly 13 degrees that day, no higher and no lower. After July 19, 2026 ends, the market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded that day at Wellington International Airport, pulled from the weather tracking site Wunderground. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — so 13.7°C would count as 14°C, for instance. The reading is locked in once Wunderground publishes its first data point for July 20; any corrections made after that cutoff are ignored. The two news items provided — one about Israeli parliament legislation and one about a university conference in Malaysia — have no connection to Wellington weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of update that would actually matter is a medium-range weather forecast for Wellington around July 19, 2026, which would not be reliably available until a week or so before that date. Weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely difficult, even for professionals. Wellington is also famously unpredictable — it sits at the southern tip of New Zealand's North Island and is known for sudden wind shifts and temperature swings. The market currently clusters around 13°C at 57%, with meaningful probability on 14°C and some on 12°C, reflecting that the range is tight and a degree either way is entirely plausible. A single weather system passing through could shift the outcome.

The odds right now

• 14°C47%
• 13°C42%
• 12°C9%
• 15°C6%
• 16°C1%
• 17°C0%
• 8°C or below0%
• 9°C0%
• 10°C0%
• 11°C0%
• 18°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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