Highest temperature in Wellington on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on a single specific day in Wellington, New Zealand, how warm will it get? Wellington is in the Southern Hemisphere, so July 20 is the middle of winter there — think cold, windy days. The three options are 11°C, 12°C, or 13°C (roughly 52–55°F), which are all fairly typical winter highs for the city. The market is simply asking which of those three narrow temperature bands the day's peak temperature will fall into. After July 20, 2026 ends, the market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded that day at Wellington International Airport, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — so 12.7°C would count as 13°C, for example. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 21 appears on that site, after which any later corrections to the data are ignored. The only news provided is about an Indian education bill, which has no connection to Wellington's weather. There is no relevant recent news to draw on here. For a market like this, the things worth watching closer to the date would be Wellington weather forecasts from New Zealand's MetService or similar sources — those become meaningfully accurate about five to seven days out. Weather on any single specific day is genuinely hard to predict more than a week in advance, and this market ends more than a year from now. The three options are all bunched within just two degrees of each other, which makes the margin razor-thin — a slightly warmer or cooler air mass passing over on that exact day is all it takes to shift the answer. Wellington is also famously windy and changeable, which adds extra unpredictability even to short-range forecasts.

The odds right now

• 12°C61%
• 11°C37%
• 13°C3%
• 10°C1%
• 14°C0%
• 9°C0%
• 15°C0%
• 6°C or below0%
• 7°C0%
• 8°C0%
• 16°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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