Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Wuhan get on July 15, 2026? Specifically, will the single highest temperature of that day land in the 36°C, 37°C, or 38°C band. To put that in everyday terms: 36°C is about 97°F (very hot), 37°C is about 99°F (seriously hot), and 38°C is about 100°F (sweltering). The market currently thinks 37°C is the most likely outcome at around 49%, with 38°C and 36°C each getting roughly equal shares of the remaining probability. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on July 15, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — no fractions. Whoever runs the market will wait until the first data point from July 16 appears on that page before officially settling it, giving time for any last-minute corrections to the July 15 data. After that cutoff, no further revisions count. No recent news was provided that relates to this market. The kind of development worth watching closer to the date would be seasonal weather forecasts for central China in mid-July, or any reports of unusual heat patterns in the Yangtze River basin region, where Wuhan sits. July 15 is still over a year away, which makes this genuinely hard to call — weather at that range is essentially unforecastable this far out. Even in July, Wuhan's daily highs can swing several degrees based on cloud cover, rain, and wind. The three options cover only a 3-degree window (36–38°C), and temperatures outside that range are also possible, meaning the market may not even include the eventual answer. That spread across three close options reflects real meteorological uncertainty, not a clear favorite.

The odds right now

• 36°C47%
• 37°C46%
• 38°C11%
• 39°C3%
• 40°C1%
• 31°C or below0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 41°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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