Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will the single hottest temperature of the day be in Wuhan, China — specifically at the city's main airport weather station? The three options cluster tightly: 30°C is about 86°F, 31°C is about 88°F, and 32°C is about 90°F. So the real question is how hot Wuhan gets on that one specific summer day, within a narrow three-degree window. The market settles based on the peak temperature logged at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport weather station on July 19, 2026, as recorded on the Weather Underground website. Whatever whole-number Celsius temperature is shown as the day's high — once data for July 20 starts appearing — determines which option wins. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, so 31.7°C would count as 31°C, not 32°C. Any last-minute data corrections before that next-day cutoff count; corrections after do not. None of the provided news headlines relate to Wuhan's weather or climate conditions. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would matter to watch is any forecast for central China in mid-July 2026 — particularly whether a heat wave or unusual weather system is expected in the Yangtze River region around that date. July in Wuhan is reliably hot — the city is famous for its brutal summers — but the difference between 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C on any single day is genuinely small and hard to predict a year out. Long-range weather forecasting loses precision beyond about two weeks, so even professional meteorologists cannot reliably call a single day's peak this far ahead. The market's three leading options are priced fairly close together (24–32%), which honestly reflects that uncertainty rather than a clear favorite.

The odds right now

• 31°C51%
• 30°C18%
• 32°C11%
• 33°C10%
• 34°C1%
• 35°C0%
• 28°C or below0%
• 29°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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