Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, how hot will it get in Wuhan? Specifically, it's asking you to pick which temperature bucket the day's peak heat falls into — 32°C (about 90°F), 33°C (about 91°F), or 34°C or above (about 93°F and higher). Wuhan sits in central China and is famously one of the country's 'furnace cities', known for intense summer heat. The three options together cover the realistic range for a mid-July day there. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on July 20, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. Whichever of the three buckets that peak reading falls into wins. One key detail: the data must be measured in whole degrees Celsius — no decimals. Also, the market won't close until the first reading from July 21 appears on the site, giving a small window for any late corrections to July 20's data. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The one headline supplied is about an education policy bill in India, which has no connection to Wuhan's weather. To track this market, what would actually matter is any extended weather forecast for Wuhan in mid-July 2026, or climate pattern updates such as unusual heat dome forecasts for central China. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market ends over a year from now — so no forecast today can reliably pin down a single day's peak temperature. The three buckets are closely spaced (just 1°C apart), meaning even a small swing in conditions shifts the outcome. The market currently spreads odds fairly evenly across all three options, reflecting that honest uncertainty. The main unknowns are whether summer 2026 brings unusual heat or a cooler spell to central China.

The odds right now

• 33°C42%
• 34°C or higher41%
• 32°C14%
• 31°C3%
• 30°C2%
• 29°C1%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 24°C or below0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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