How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or stronger will shake anywhere on Earth during a specific six-day window in July 2026. To picture what 5.5 means: it's the level where you'd strongly feel shaking indoors, objects fall off shelves, and some structural damage can occur — not a minor tremor, but not the catastrophic range either. The three options are whether the total count lands at exactly 11, exactly 12, or more than 12 during that window. The final count of magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes recorded by the USGS between July 14 and July 19, 2026 decides this. USGS is the official source — their public earthquake database is the judge. One important detail: if a borderline earthquake happens on the last day, the market can stay open an extra 24 hours to allow USGS to finalize its magnitude reading, since quake magnitudes are sometimes revised shortly after they occur. That revision window is worth knowing about. A devastating earthquake event in Venezuela — with a reported death toll above 5,000 — appears to have occurred right at the edge of this market's timeframe, based on the July 19 headlines. This is directly relevant: a major seismic event like this, and any aftershocks at 5.5 or above, would count toward the total. Whether Venezuelan aftershocks push the count higher or whether this was already factored into the current odds is the key thing to watch. Earthquake counts over any short window are genuinely hard to forecast — seismic activity doesn't follow a predictable schedule. The Venezuela disaster introduces a real wild card: large earthquakes frequently generate aftershocks, and if those aftershocks reach 5.5+, they add to the count. The market already leans toward 'more than 12' at 54%, likely reflecting this. The main remaining uncertainty is how many Venezuela aftershocks qualify, plus whether any other regions produce significant quakes in the same window.

The odds right now

• >1269%
• 1226%
• 113%
• 101%
• 91%
• 70%
• ≤60%
• 80%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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