How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking you to guess how many major earthquakes will shake the planet in 2026 — specifically ones measuring 7.0 or higher on the Richter scale, which is the threshold seismologists use for 'major' quakes capable of causing widespread destruction. You're not picking Yes or No here; you're picking a range. The three options are 11–13 quakes, 14–16 quakes, or 17–19 quakes. To put that in perspective, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake is roughly 32 times more powerful than a 6.0 — these are the ones that make international news. At the end of 2026, whoever runs this market will count up every earthquake that registered 7.0 or higher anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, using the official USGS earthquake database as the scorecard. Whichever count range matches that final number wins. One edge case worth knowing: if a qualifying earthquake happens late in December but hasn't been logged by the USGS yet, the market can stay open until January 7, 2027, to give the data time to appear. The provided news references a devastating pair of earthquakes in Venezuela in July 2026 that killed over 5,000 people — a stark, real-world reminder of what a major quake looks like. This is relevant because those events almost certainly count toward the 2026 total this market is tracking. Two significant quakes in a single news cycle from one country illustrates how quickly the annual count can climb, especially when events cluster. Earthquakes are genuinely unpredictable — that's not a cliché, it's a scientific reality. The Earth averages roughly 15 major quakes per year historically, which is why the 14–16 range leads at 46%, but any given year can run quiet or active with no warning. The second half of 2026 is still unfinished, so a single active seismic period — or a surprisingly calm stretch — could shift the count into a different bracket entirely. No model reliably forecasts when or where the next big quake strikes.

The odds right now

• 14–16+4.5 pts (1w)46%
• 17–19+13.0 pts (1w)34%
• 11–13+3.0 pts (1w)17%
• 20++2.9 pts (1w)10%
• 8–10-0.2 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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